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Susie Holt may run again for this seat as her Facebook page still says “Suzie Holt 4 Groom” & is still active
@Caleb that doesn’t mean much.
It’s actually a worthwhile observation, thank you Caleb. Certainly more meaningful than much of the amateur psephology one may encounter.
Holt did extremely well in 2022, but I think if she were to run again she would find it much trickier as she’s not running against the LNP government per se. I think a lot of her vote was down to a protest from LNP voters who wanted to send a note of discontent against the sitting PM but did not want to vote Labor.
Given the government has changed, you would expect the anti-government vote will coalesce solidly behind the LNP with a smattering of One Nation on the side. The LNP will win 50%+ on primaries but not due to the talents of the sitting member, but a combination of rusted-on conservatism and a Labor government in Canberra.
Holt did extremely well in 2022
@NQ View
Susie Holt came fourth on the primary vote with 8.3%. And the Labor candidate beat Holt by over 10% on the primary vote. But preferences were able to weave her into the final two party preferred vote. I think it’s been exaggerated how well she did. I’m not sure if Groom is a prime target for the teals, unlike like a seat such as Bradfield.
If finishing in the final 2PP vote as an independent, and driving the LNP down to its lowest 2PP tally since the seat was established isn’t ‘doing extremely well’, then I’m not sure what else there is to say. There was zero expectation of Holt doing as well as she did.